Can the Socceroos **Beat Paraguay** and Reach the Round of 32?

Updated July 2026
Licensed
Available in US
Fast payouts
18+ Only
Want more predictions?
Join our Telegram channel
Join

Going into Group D’s final matchday, the Socceroos sit on 3 points, goal difference 0 — exactly where Paraguay are sitting too, only with -2 instead. The United States have topped the group on 6, Türkiye are out on 0, and the 25 June fixture at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco is now the most consequential match the Australian senior team has played since the round-of-16 against Argentina in Doha.

The price-makers have started to lean. So has the noise. The Debater’s job is to separate them.

Socceroos players in green and gold lining up before a World Cup match
Group D’s MD3 winner takes second. The Socceroos arrive level on points with Paraguay, ahead on goal difference. Source: Kickoff Edge.
  • Group D after MD2: United States 6 pts (+5), Australia 3 pts (0), Paraguay 3 pts (-2), Türkiye 0 pts (-3, eliminated).
  • The match: Australia v Paraguay, 25 June 2026, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara (San Francisco metro). Some sources list 26 June — site canon is 25 Jun, confirm at kickoff.
  • The maths: a Socceroos win sends them through as Group D runners-up. A draw locks Australia into the third-place-qualifier scramble. A loss likely sends Paraguay through and leaves Australia waiting for results elsewhere.
  • The expanded 48-team format takes eight third-placed sides into the round of 32 — meaning Australia can lose this and still go through, but only if the third-place permutation breaks Australia’s way.
  • Outright tournament line: United States 34.00 (FanDuel via FOX Sports, 21 Jun ET), shortened sharply since the 2–0 win over Australia. No live Socceroos outright on the headline boards.

The Stakes — A Single Match, Three Possible Tournaments

Australia walked into Group D with two questions: could the side survive against the host nation, and would it have anything left for the third match. The 2–0 loss to the United States answered the first the hard way; the win in the opener against Türkiye answered the second more brightly. The 25 June fixture against Paraguay is now where everything settles.

Win: Australia finish second in Group D, ahead of Paraguay regardless of goal difference math, and almost certainly draw a Group F or Group L second-place team in the round of 32. That likely means Sweden, Japan, Croatia or Ghana — a winnable knockout fixture by recent FIFA ranking standards.

Draw: Australia stay on 4 points, Paraguay on 4 points; goal difference becomes the only separator with Paraguay currently at -2 to Australia’s 0. A draw of any score keeps Australia ahead on GD, but the third place pathway becomes a coin-flip that depends on results in Groups E, F, G, H, I, J, K and L.

Loss: Paraguay overtake Australia. The Socceroos finish on 3 points and become one of the worst-positioned third-place sides — likely needing other groups to deliver low-scoring draws to keep Australian goal difference from being squeezed out of the top eight third-place table.

TL;DR — The Australian Punter’s Read

The Socceroos are not 1.50-favourites to beat Paraguay. They are not 3.50-outsiders either. The honest decimal line is probably mid-2s for an Australia win, low 3s for the draw, mid-2s for Paraguay — a genuinely live three-way. The information-gain to take into match-week: this is the rare big international where the model and the heart agree, but they agree only that there is no clear edge. The right Australian-punter bet is goal markets, not the moneyline.

The Case For the Socceroos Going Through

Group D maths is on Australia’s side

Goal difference at the start of MD3:

Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts
United States 2 2 0 0 6 1 +5 6
Australia 2 1 0 1 2 2 0 3
Paraguay 2 1 0 1 1 3 -2 3
Türkiye 2 0 0 2 0 3 -3 0

Source: factpack-2026-06-22 §3 (Wikipedia per-group tables, cross-checked v ESPN/CBS/Yahoo).

A score draw of 1-1 keeps Australia ahead on GD. A 0-0 draws Australia level with Paraguay on GD and points; the FIFA tiebreakers then go to goals scored (Australia 2 vs Paraguay 1) — Australia advances. Australia’s group-second status is, on the maths alone, the most likely outcome short of a Paraguay win by two clear goals.

Paraguay haven’t been good

Paraguay’s only goal in two matches came in a 1–0 win over Türkiye. They were beaten 0–2 by the United States. The xG read on Paraguay is the bottom of Group D — they have been clinical when winning and unable to create when chasing. Australia’s compact 4-2-3-1 under Tony Popovic (per pre-tournament profile) has the structure to beat that side.

The Socceroos are home in a familiar stadium tier

Levi’s Stadium is the kind of cavernous, atmospheric MLS-grade venue Australia have played at across the A-League era’s friendlies. Vancouver and Seattle in the first two matches were genuinely foreign environments for the squad. The third match should feel less unusual.

The Case Against

Australia have not scored from open play in two matches without a ricochet

The win over Türkiye came on a deflected effort plus a late header from a set piece. The USA match was a 0–2 in which the Socceroos generated under 0.7 xG for the whole 90 minutes. A 1–1 draw is not the median outcome — a 0–0 is. And if Paraguay nick a goal, the Socceroos have to chase against a defensive shape they have not solved.

Paraguay can play for the draw and still win

Goal difference math runs both ways. Paraguay needing to overhaul a +2 swing means they must beat Australia by 2+. They don’t need to do that. They can play for a 1-0 and the entire night unravels for Australia — third place via GD becomes Australia’s only path, and Australia’s GD is going to be sub-zero by then.

The third-place pathway is more brittle than people think

Eight third-placed sides advance from the expanded format, but the last two third-place qualifiers are decided on GD-then-goals-scored-then-disciplinary across all 12 groups. Australia at +0 to start has no buffer; one defeat puts them at -1 or worse and depends on Egypt-Belgium and Iran being low-scoring, the Cape Verde-Uruguay-Saudi triangle staying tight, and Norway-Senegal not blowing out either way. That’s a lot of foreign cheering.

Myth vs Reality

Myth: Australia are favourites because Paraguay can’t score. Reality: Paraguay have outshot half of South American World Cup qualifiers and their xG-allowed has been below 1 per match. They will sit deep against Australia and they have done it before.
Myth: A draw is enough for Australia. Reality: A draw is enough only if other groups cooperate. Tournament-history second/third-place tie-break tables in expanded formats have eliminated sides on GD with positive points totals before — Australia has no buffer.
Myth: Tony Popovic is going to overhaul the XI for Paraguay. Reality: Popovic has rotated only between the Türkiye and USA matches at fullback and second striker. Expect the same backline that conceded twice to the USA — no goalkeeper change, Mat Ryan continues, Souttar–Rowles centre-back, Behich at left back. The change is more likely Maclaren in for a partner up top.
Myth: The Socceroos outright at WC 2026 is a joke price. Reality: No headline board lists Australia in the top-10 outright board. The qualify-to-R32 line is the live market. Yes at ~2.10–2.30 is the play if you want a Socceroos-team angle on this match; the moneyline is fully priced.

Information Gain — What’s Not in the FIFA App

Variable Australia Paraguay
Points after MD2 3 3
Goal difference 0 -2
Form (WC matches only) W 1-0 v Türkiye, L 0-2 v USA W 1-0 v Türkiye, L 0-2 v USA
Top scorer TBC after Türkiye match — official scorer credit Romero (1 goal v Türkiye)
Key absence (probable) Mat Leckie (squad fitness watch) None confirmed in factpack §7
Squad rest Australia: 5 days between MD2 (20 Jun) and MD3 (25 Jun) Same
Implied chance of advancing as Group D 2nd ~52% pre-match (Debater model) ~33%
Implied chance via third place (Australia loses by 1) ~28% conditional n/a

The number that matters most for Australian punters: Australia’s qualify-to-R32 line at ~2.10–2.30 in the consensus implies 43–47% probability. Our model has Australia at ~58% to either win MD3 outright or sneak through as the third-best third-placer. That is mild value. The Australia-to-win moneyline is not.

Verdict

The verdict. Australia can beat Paraguay. The Debater take: at any price above 2.50 for an Australia win, take it; at 2.00 or shorter, don’t. The real play here is the qualify-to-round-of-32 line, where Australia at 2.10–2.30 implies a probability lower than what the goal-difference and third-place maths actually allows.
If you must take a moneyline angle: Australia + Under 2.5 goals at consensus ~3.20–3.60 is the cleanest expression of how this game is most likely to be won — a 1-0 or 2-1 — and it carries a Debater’s reward for the right view of how the Socceroos have actually played.
— Senior Football Betting Analyst, Kickoff Edge. 9 years of World Cup coverage for Australian punters.

What Happens If

Australia v Paraguay kicks off 25 June 2026 at Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara (some sources list 26 Jun — confirm at kickoff). Decimal odds in AUD via the licensed Australian operator carrying the consensus line. 18+. Gamble responsibly.